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Stock futures soared higher on Friday morning after new data showed that US job growth slowed considerably last month. The US added just 175,000 new jobs in April, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday. That's far below economists expectations for 235,000 jobs and the 315,000 jobs added in March. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut.
Persons: That's Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall Street, Federal Reserve
The unemployment rate ticked higher as well, to 3.9% from 3.8% the month before. That’s because the Federal Reserve is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. A still-robust job market means the central bank could continue to keep rates elevated without fear of sending the economy into a recession. If the labor market weakens, the Fed is more likely to consider a rate cut. “We’re also prepared to respond to an unexpected weakening in the labor market,” he said.
Persons: Dow, , , Matt Peron, Janus Henderson, They’re, Jerome Powell, “ We’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, Wall, Federal Reserve, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, , Treasury, Apple Locations: New York
The Fed and economic policy were top of mind this week given the central bank's Wednesday decision to yet again leave interest rates unchanged , as it has since last summer. This week included the conclusion of April's trading month, which marked the first down month of the year for all three major market averages. Indeed, some recent earnings reports have raised doubts about the economy, with brands from McDonald's and Starbucks evidencing signs of strain among consumers. While no new inflation numbers are scheduled for release next week, investors will see reports on March wholesale inventories, March consumer credit and May consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan. AI trade Though interest rates took center stage this week, investors also continued monitoring companies tied to the artificial intelligence boom amid the stocks' recent choppiness.
Persons: they're, Jerome Powell, Larry Tentarelli, David Donabedian, Sam Stovall, There's, Stovall, Tom Hainlin, Tentarelli, CFRA's Stovall, Lyft, Cabot, Aramark, Tempur Sealy, Nikola, Walt Disney, Sally Beauty, Warby Parker, Krispy Kreme, Papa John's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CIBC Private Wealth, Dow, CFRA, Citigroup, Bank of America, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, University of Michigan, Nvidia, Disney, Spirit Airlines, Tyson Foods, Pharmaceuticals, Lucid, Palantir Technologies, Simon Property, Tech, Lab, Goodyear Tire, Noble Corp, Vornado Realty, Coty, BellRing, Consumer, UBS, BP, Nintendo, Bloomin, Duke Energy, Rockwell Automation, Ferrari, NRG Energy, Electronic Arts, Cirrus, Adaptive Biotech, Arista Networks, Dutch Bros, Holdings, Virgin Galactic, IAC, Rivian Automotive, Brighthouse, Occidental Petroleum, Assurant, Kinross Gold, Labs, Diamond, Reddit, Anheuser, Busch InBev, Embraer, Health, United Parks & Resorts, Emerson Electric, Brookfield , New York Times, Food, Reynolds Consumer Products, Teva Pharma, Uber Technologies, Dine Brands, Liberty Broadband, Fox Corp, Cushman &, Liberty Media, Arm Holdings, Kodiak Gas Services, Solaredge Technologies, AMC Entertainment, Cheesecake, News Corp, Toyota Motors, Fair, US Foods, Hyatt Hotels, Warner Bros, Hilton, Warner Music Group, Unity Software, Insurance, Gen, Honda, AMC Networks Locations: Central, McDonald's, Expeditors, Occidental, Angi, Brookfield , New, Ambev, Cushman & Wakefield, Michigan
The prospect of the European Central Bank diverging from the Federal Reserve on interest rate cuts is likely to be "particularly negative" for the 20-nation euro zone, according to one economist. The ECB appears on course to cut interest rates in June, barring any major surprises, and recent inflation data has since bolstered the case for an imminent reduction in borrowing costs. It leaves the ECB firmly on track to cut interest rates before the Fed. "The problem of cutting rates right now is that the ECB takes for granted the strength of the euro . Lacalle said a June rate cut from the ECB was not going to make German, French or Spanish businesses take more credit "because a small rate cut is not the driver of credit demand."
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Daniel Lacalle, Gestion, CNBC's, Lacalle Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Federal Reserve, CNBC Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S
Less than a month ago, analysts were calling for subdued earnings growth of just 3%. Although higher rates can be a headache, Lefkowitz said earnings growth matters most. Instead of obsessing over when interest rates will fall, Lefkowitz said investors should consider the reasoning behind the Fed's decisions. "If rates are rising and that's leading to more confidence in the earnings growth outlook, then that shouldn't be a headwind to markets," Lefkowitz said. Follow this 5-part investing game planHealthy earnings growth and a resilient economy have strategists at UBS GWM bullish about US stocks.
Persons: Jonathan Golub, weren't, that's, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, , shouldn't Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS, Business, UBS GWM, Bank of America, Federal, Healthcare
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings growth is a constructive backdrop for stocks: Rockland's David SmithDavid Smith, Rockland Trust chief investment officer, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed, jobs numbers, inflation, and the markets.
Persons: Rockland's David Smith David Smith Organizations: Rockland Trust
America's big stagflation scare is over
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe US economy looks to have steered clear of danger after the specter of stagflation spooked markets and put analysts on edge in recent weeks. Further, average hourly earnings unexpectedly declined to 0.2%. And since elevated labor costs are part of the stagflation equation, the dip in average hourly earnings also signaled a period of languid growth will be avoided. It sent alarm bells ringing around stagflation, which occurs when inflation stays high despite a cooling economy.
Persons: , specter, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Bank of America's Michael Harnett —, Harnett Organizations: Service, Business, Bank of America, Bloomberg, Bank of America's
Restaurants are competing for frugal diners’ dollars
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
For some restaurants, it feels like a battle to get them to spend. Olive Garden-parent Darden Restaurants saw same-restaurant sales dip during its most recent quarter. Darden saw sales from households with incomes above $150,000 climb from the prior year. What to expect in Friday’s jobs reportThe US job market has been on a roll for the past three years. That’s about 25,000 more jobs per month than last year and 111,000 more per month than in 2019.
Persons: , Laxman Narasimhan, , we’ve, Ian Borden, Ricardo Cardenas, Scott Sheffield, “ Mr, , Matt Egan, Read, Alicia Wallace, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Starbucks, Darden, OPEC, Federal Trade Commission, Sheffield, Organization of, Petroleum, Saudi Arabia, Regulators, Pioneer Natural Resources, CNN, of Labor Statistics Locations: New York, China, Olive, American, Saudi, Sheffield, Texas, OPEC, Russia
These are the kinds of questions used by the University of Michigan to calculate the Consumer Sentiment Index, an economic indicator measuring how people feel about the economy. That survey and others show there is a pervasive sense of disconnect between the overall economic picture and how people feel about the economy. Despite slowing inflation, a healthy labor market with record-low unemployment, and stocks that remain in a bull market, consumer sentiment remains below pre-pandemic levels. "People don't tend to think in terms of inflation—economists do," said Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management. Normal people think in terms of price levels."
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Paul Donovan Organizations: University of Michigan, Consumers, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Within the walls of the White House, it was seen the same way, stoking relief among officials, who said the data hewed near the team’s own targets for ideal job creation. In the wake of the latest jobs report, many market participants are now expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September, potentially easing a source of consternation for voters. Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s cited frequently by the White House, said certain psychological thresholds will remain important as the election approaches. In the meantime, White House officials continue to watch the data carefully and refrain from declaring victory until it bears out the trajectory the Biden administration wants to see. “The best measure of inflation is inflation,” the official told CNN.
Persons: Joe Biden, Ron Klain, , Mark Zandi, Moody’s, ” Zandi, Biden “, ” Biden, Mandel Ngan, – Biden, Biden Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, White, Biden, Democratic, Reserve, Wilmington Convention, Getty Locations: Wilmington, Wilmington , North Carolina, AFP
Higher interest rates in the United States and other countries mean investors can make bigger returns on investments there than they can in Japan. This encourages carry trades, in which investors borrow money in yen to invest it in higher-yielding assets priced in other currencies. That weakens the Japanese currency. A Big Mac costs 50% more in the next cheapest G10 currency, the New Zealand dollar, than it does in yen, he added. … and lots of drawbacksBut the falling yen has caused much pain at home and not just for small businesses like Japan Fraise.
Persons: hasn’t, Hiroko Ishikawa, “ It’s, ” Ishikawa, , we’re, We’re, Himari Semans, That’s, ” Nigel Green, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett, ” Sean Callow, , Sato Hitomi, Semans, I’ve, , Laura He, Chris Lau Organizations: Tokyo CNN, US, Reserve, CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, deVere, greenback, Labor, Societe Generale, New Zealand, Japan’s National Tourism Organization, Tokyo’s Locations: Hong Kong, Tokyo, Japan, United States, Sydney, Hawaii
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDon't expect inflation to come down to target in 2024, says Nuveen's Saira MalikSaira Malik, Nuveen CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Nuveen's Saira Malik Saira Malik
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHeat wave will be a 'double whammy' for Asian economies, JPMorgan saysRajiv Batra, head of Asia-Pacific ex-Japan and China equity strategy at JPMorgan, says it will lead to higher inflation and a slowdown in growth.
Persons: Rajiv Batra Organizations: JPMorgan Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, China
The latest employment report on Friday showing a lower-than-forecast 175,000 new jobs across the country in April became immediate fodder for the 2024 presidential race. The monthly jobs report is likely to be quickly forgotten in the campaign. But the biggest impact could be on the Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates in the country. Mr. Trump himself appears to be closely tracking the rate decisions of the Federal Reserve. At the Manhattan courthouse on Thursday, Mr. Trump said, “Interest rates are obviously not going to be reduced prior to the election because inflation is roaring back.”
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Biden, Biden’s, Jerome H, Powell, Organizations: White, Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Siena College, Mr Locations: New York, Manhattan
Watch CNBC's full interview with IBM's Gary Cohn
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with IBM's Gary CohnGary Cohn, IBM vice chairman and former NEC director, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss whether Cohn liked Friday's jobs report, whether the inflation numbers will start to come in lower, and more.
Persons: IBM's Gary Cohn Gary Cohn, Cohn Organizations: IBM, NEC
An undated photographic illustration of Japanese yen and the U.S. dollar bank notes. The yen touched 160.03 against the greenback on Monday, for the first time since 1990, but strengthened to 156 levels later that day amid speculation about an intervention by Japanese authorities. Japanese authorities are yet to issue an official statement confirming their role in propping up the currency. In the last few decades, while other global central banks have tightened their policies, Japan had maintained its ultra-loose policy, leading to concentrated carry trades in the Japanese yen. Market participants believe Japanese authorities will intervene further to prop up the currency.
Persons: Glowimages, they've, Nicholas Smith, Kazuo Ueda, Edward Yardeni Organizations: U.S, Glowimages, CNBC, Bank of America Global Research, Bank of Japan, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Yardeni Research Locations: propping, Japan, U.S, Bank of Japan
Elsewhere, the dollar lost ground against most of its peers and was headed for its worst week in nearly two months, in part due to the sharp rise in the yen this week. The euro ticked up 0.05% to last trade at $1.0730, and was eyeing a weekly gain of 0.35%. "Recent Fed speech has acknowledged the lack of progress on inflation and the desire to maintain the current level of policy rates for longer. Down Under, the Australian dollar edged 0.07% higher to $0.6570, and was on track to gain nearly 0.6% for the week. The New Zealand dollar tacked on a marginal 0.03% to $0.5963, and was eyeing a 0.4% weekly gain.
Persons: Tokyo's, Vishnu Varathan, Jerome Powell, Sterling steadied, Tai Hui Organizations: Traders, Bank of Japan, Ministry of Finance, Mizuho Bank, Federal, Fed, Morgan Asset Management, New Zealand Locations: Asia, tenterhooks, Tokyo, Japan
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation has become 'incredibly unpredictable', says Roger FergusonFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the April jobs report, impact on the Fed's interest rate outlook, likelihood of a rate hike, and more.
Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Roger Ferguson Former Federal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will be happy with jobs report which showed cooling in employment, says IBM's CohnGary Cohn, IBM vice chairman and former NEC director, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss whether Cohn liked Friday's jobs report, whether the inflation numbers will start to come in lower, and mo
Persons: IBM's Cohn Gary Cohn, Cohn Organizations: IBM, NEC
The Fed will have room to cut rates, Invesco says
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will have room to cut rates, Invesco saysPaul Jackson, global head of asset allocation research at Invesco, says "the underlying, background inflation fundamentals are still suggesting a decline in core inflation."
Persons: Invesco, Paul Jackson
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
European stock markets are set to open in the green on Friday, rounding off a broadly negative week dominated by corporate earnings. The Stoxx 600 index has finished lower for the past three sessions as investors digested a slew of results from the biggest companies in Europe and the U.S.On Friday, those included French banks Société Générale , which reported a smaller-than-forecast decline in first-quarter profit, and Crédit Agricole , which saw a leap in net profit. Data is due on U.K. retail sales, Turkey's inflation rate, French industrial production and Spanish employment.
Organizations: U.S, Crédit Agricole Locations: Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUse real assets and hedge funds to help mitigate emerging risks: Morgan Stanley's Lisa ShalettLisa Shalett, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management CIO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if the latest jobs report is optimistic for equities, why Shalett isn't feeling better about the equity market, and the CIO's confidence on inflation falling.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett Lisa Shalett, Morgan Organizations: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Gold set for second weekly fall; U.S. payrolls on investors' radar
  + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices were poised for a second straight weekly decline, although bullion held steady on Friday as investors remained cautious ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls data that could provide cues on the Federal Reserve's rate cut timeline. Spot gold held its ground at $2,306.84 per ounce by 0457 GMT but lost more than 1% this week. Softer U.S. payrolls print could provide support for gold but a better report may weigh on prices, Wong added. The non-farm payrolls report is due at 1230 GMT.
Persons: Christopher Wong, Wong, Wang Tao, Fawad Organizations: Co, U.S ., Fed, City Index Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Egypt, Israel
Job growth in April was concentrated in traditionally low-paying sectors like healthcare and retail. Wage growth, though slower, still outpaces inflation, which is still a boon for workers. That's because the industries that led job growth in April are traditionally low-paying. Indeed, job growth is concentrated in industries that are historically low-paying — and continue to pay less than the average across private industries. As Pollak notes, "wage growth has come down sharply, but it's mostly come down in industries where it was very rapid before."
Persons: , it's, Jobs, that's, Labor Julie Su, Julia Pollak, It's, Kate Bahn, Insider's Aki Ito, Pollak, ALICE, They're, Nick Bunker, Bunker Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Labor, Healthcare, Institute for Women's, North, Business Locations: Bahn, North America
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